There is absolutely no way you can keep crafting success percentages in the game.
Human beings by nature are redonkolously terrible at statistics and unbelievably incognizant about their own heuristics and common fallacies as proven by the countless RNG posts in this forum.
Although trained in logic, rhetoric, statistics & neurobiology - I’ve had many hours long sessions of me trying to explain the most basic of the basic fallacies of the mind to plenty of otherwise intelligent people - completely fruitless.
( Maybe you’re a bad explainer? > : [ No, I’m not! )
You may put them in an alternate form such as being available to the public in some API spreadsheet or as a third party tool but no way in game.
making crafting easier would just make near perfect items less valueable (with critical successes and through taking early risks with stability runes to keep the instability down). There’s no shortage of crafting materials and the risks are clearly given, I think the crafting system is great.
I’m truly sorry but if you cannot understand what % mean you are kind of a donkey I can put my 14 year old brother in front of the crafting system and he will understand it. There is a guide ingame for it too … So I don’t know what you’re saying in this post except the fact that people will get a fracture at 80% and complain about it in chat which does not matter!
If we look at this from a psychological point of view this is something a bad explainer would say :D.
If the game makes crafting to easy there will be no more carrot but only a stick if EHG don’t change the loot system dramaticly. I’m okay with the crafting system… sometimes it’s a biatch and sometimes it’s better then grandmas Dampfnudel mit Vanillesoße ^^.
There are several posts where some people just don’t get RNG/statistics/probability (including suggestions that fracturing other random gear will “help” them craft a desired piece of gear). So, while I agree with your sentiment, KMQ is also kinda right.
I do enjoy the crafting system in LE. It’s different than others. KMQ isn’t wrong, but neither are most of the other replies. People play games to enjoy themselves, and its clear that, while it is something people should be able to understand and grasp, it will be catastrophic for some to get these ‘unlucky streaks’ or what have you, and they’ll likely stop playing. Why wouldn’t they if it gives them this much ‘not fun’?
I feel the devs need to decide and/or create something that goes one way, the other, or some sort of middle ground. The latter is likely I believe, as EHG has been quite resourceful in creating things that wrap this game and community together (For better or worse), but the point is, they do. And they continue to listen to us. So hopefully these threads will slow down. They’ve spoken on this and we need to see what they do. Then we can complain/praise as we see fit.
What the OP is trying to say is don’t show success/failure rate because people don’t understand probability so they complain based on their lack of understanding.
I’ve had exactly 1 piece of gear NOT get fractured.
Every other piece is minor fractured.
Why? Because pushing for a better gear w/ crafting, even if it’s statistically unlikely, is more likely than FINDING that perfect piece of gear.
W/ Glyph of the Guardian negating ‘Destructive’ fractures, the worst my gear can do is become damaging. And usually that doesn’t happen, so I’m just left with a minor fracture.
If there was some way to reduce crafting instability, via grinding or with an item, I might put the time in to finding it. But there’s not.
From my point of view, there is zero negative impact for attempting to T5 each affix. (Besides the tiny pain in my heart when I hear that Tsh-Chunk from failure. That hurts)
although you’re being extremely sarcastic i think you bring up a good counter-point to KMQ’s argument. PoE hides all statistics regarding success and failure rates in their game, and there are entire websites dedicated to figuring out how likely everything is. (craftofexile, poedb, poeaffix which no longer updates because of how exhausting it is to keep track of everything)
if you try to craft in PoE without using one of these sources, you are more often than not going to suffer and lose lots of currency. knowing the numbers can help you plan how much currency you need to have before starting a crafting project, and can give you a measure by which to set your expectations.
some people will always get mad at things not going their way in video games, but most people want data, facts, figures to base their efforts on. i think it is utter nonsense that somehow, psychologically, people would like the game more without this info.
I’m complaining that the game shouldn’t be developed in a manner which doesn’t take into account the flaws of the human mind that produces unpleasant results for the player.
This isn’t about how the crafting system works but how the information is presented.
People do know what a percentage is but they don’t understand how much does something stand for; and this is an universal feature which applies to everyone, even the smartest.
Wha! > : (
Again, I’m not asking for a change in the clockwork of the system but rather how the information is presented.
In my opinion the craft in the last epoch is easier than POE, maybe those who are having problems are doing it wrong. With a common base of an item you can easily get t3 in the 4 affix … even if you are not lucky, it requires few attempts. With t3 you should be able to go further in the game; from there, start to get magic bases that have at least 1 of the crafts you want, for example, t4 int … with that you will easily have an item with 1 or more t4 affix, and with luck you will have items with t5 (focus the ones you need the most first) … with that you should be able to do the late game without any problems, unless your build doesn’t work well.
My strategy: To get an average item to level, I use Glyph of Stability at every opportunity with
chance of success greater than or equal to 80%. After that i use Glyph of the Guardian. Since I already have an average item, to get better items, in addition to trying to get magic items with any of the affixes I want, I use Glyph of Stability in all possibilities with chance of success greater than or equal to 70%, and after that I use Glyph of the Guardian. You will lose some items in the process, but nothing absurd.
Tip: You can use the gambling npc to get some bases you want and craft from them.
Tip 2: Npc’s sell Rune of Shattering. Whenever you finish the map, look for new and buy. With the filter to change the color of items with the affixes you want, it is very easy to have shards to crafting … All possible tools to crafting an item with ease are available … some even look like cheaters.
I don’t know how they could be clearer with the information. For me% is fine (what alternative way do you suggest, without changing the system?) … you are already able to accurately select the affixes you want for your item, this already helps a lot; even if someone doesn’t understand how% works, it is still not difficult to craft items
They won’t because there are always new players and the only game where I’ve witnessed such an overwhelming amount of complaints regarding crafting success is this one for the very reason presented in the first post.
It’s far healthier than having people complain and be angry at the game simply for not knowing any better.
I’m here to diagnose the disease but using third party websites is a completely viable strategy as overwhelmingly majority of the games do so - LoL, Overwatch, PoE, Starcraft, Warframe etc.
People in general don’t understand or know what they really want. This isn’t me being nihilistic but again how things simply are.
Some rat example:
If I have 2 Mirrors and offer it as a donation to someone, practically everyone would accept it without understanding the teleological implications the trade involves, making them have a far less colourful and fun playing experience.
What kind of information do you think is missing? From my point of view everything is there. The only “bad” thing is to scroll through all the possible shards or tp type out the name of the shards. Everything else is pretty visible.
It may be a viable strategy, but, IMO it’s a failure of the game.
I’ll take that one for the team, for science! And yes, I’m well aware that just giving oneself good gear (whether that’s from using an item editors & the like or from a generous donation) does have a negative impact on one’s experience in a game.
I believe he’s saying that giving people an exact percentage gives them a false sense of security.
“I had a 70% chance of success, why did it fail” vs.
“I succeeded 10 times in a row, that’s pretty good”.
If you gave someone the statistical OVERALL chance of success, they might realize how lucky they were to get that far.
I’ll test craft to prove it.
Starting from a white item, and not using a Glyph of the Guardian:
Tier 1 affix
1 - 100% chance
2 - 95%
3 - 90%
4 - 85 %
Tier 2
1 - 75
2 - 70
3 - 65
4 - 60
Tier 3
1 - 50
2 - 45 - fractured
The odds of success were still close to 50/50. The TOTAL odds of success…3.3%
Same thing, but with a Glyph of the Guardian
Tier 1
1/2/3/4 - 100% Chance
Tier 2
1 - 100
2 - 95
3 - 90
4 - 85
Tier 3
1 - 75 - Fractured
I had much better odds to succeed here, but failed rather early. The total odds of success were 54%.
So my first try, I only had a 3% chance to succeed in 10 consecutive crafts. The second time, I had a 54% chance to succeed in 9 consecutive crafts.
If you spit out a number when they failed, saying “Your total odds to succeed in all crafts on this item were 3%” people would think “Damn, I got lucky!”
This post really coalesced some vague thoughts in my head. It is insightful and eloquent - thankyou.
Except the unlikely nature of either finding or crafting anything worthwhile made me stop interacting much with the item system altogether (I recommend this).
